Rep. Torres Calls on CFTC to Investigate Suspicious Polymarket Trades Ahead of Trump’s Iran Ceasefire Announcement

Newly created accounts generated hundreds of thousands in profits betting on a ceasefire hours before Trump announced a deal, while the President’s own public rhetoric signaled escalation

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Congressman Ritchie Torres (NY-15) sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig calling for an immediate investigation into suspicious trading activity on the prediction market Polymarket in the hours before President Trump announced a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7.

According to reporting by the Associated Press, a cluster of newly created accounts placed highly specific, well-timed bets on a ceasefire outcome, generating hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits within hours, at a time when the President’s own public statements signaled escalation, not a deal.

Rep. Torres’s letter argues the pattern raises serious concerns about potential insider trading and calls on the CFTC to obtain platform-level data, analyze wallet linkages and transaction histories, and keep Congress informed of its findings.

The full letter reads:

“I write to request that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) promptly review and investigate highly suspicious trading activity on prediction markets related to a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which occurred in the hours leading up to President Donald Trump’s public announcement.

“Recent reporting reveals that a group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed highly specific, well-timed bets that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, despite a lack of public indicators suggesting such an outcome. These accounts, many of which were created shortly before the announcement, generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits within hours.

“Notably, this trading activity occurred at a time when the President’s public rhetoric signaled escalation rather than de-escalation, further underscoring the improbability that these trades were based solely on publicly available information. This pattern raises serious concerns that certain market participants may have had access to material nonpublic information regarding a market-moving geopolitical event. The use of newly created wallets, combined with the precision and timing of these trades, raises serious red flags.

“Prediction markets, particularly those operating on blockchain infrastructure, present unique challenges for enforcement, including anonymity, rapid account creation, and cross-border activity. However, these features cannot serve as a shield for potential market abuse. Public reporting further indicates that only platform operators possess the internal data necessary to determine whether these accounts were controlled by new users or existing participants operating through multiple wallets.

“Accordingly, I respectfully request that the CFTC:

1. Initiate a comprehensive review and investigation into trading activity on relevant prediction markets, including Polymarket, in the period immediately leading up to the President’s announcement;
2. Obtain and analyze platform-level data, including account ownership, wallet linkages, and transaction histories, to understand how these trades were executed and identify any unusual or coordinated activity; and
3. Keep Congress and the public informed of any findings to help safeguard confidence in the fairness and integrity of U.S. markets.

“Whether these trades reflect unlawful insider activity or sophisticated speculation, the appearance of potential market abuse at this scale demands immediate transparency. Failure to act risks undermining confidence in both emerging financial technologies and the broader integrity of U.S. markets. I appreciate your prompt attention to this matter and look forward to your response.”

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